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Joe D. Wells, Jr. is a FL Real Estate Sales Assoc. Who offers his background in Finance and his local knowledge of Key West and the Florida Keys to help you with your buying and/or selling of real estate.

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Friday, August 9, 2013

Rapid Home Price Gains to Slow - Key West Real Estate - OceanBlueRealEstate.com

Home prices have been seeing rapid gains in recent months, but don’t expect that to continue.
While double digit gains have been common, home appreciation is projected to drop to 6.5% during the 12 months ending March 31, 2014, according to a report released Thursday. That will follow a 10.2% jump for the preceding 12 months, the first double-digit increase since the peak of the housing boom seven years ago.

The forecast is based on the CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indexes and covers 384 metro areas and more than 80% of the total U.S. housing market.
Related: 10 most expensive cities in the world
Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller, expects home prices in most markets to continue to increase significantly for several months before slowing down.
“Record levels of affordability, a slowly improving job market and very small inventories of new and existing homes for sale will continue to drive U.S. home price appreciation during the summer,” he said.
Home prices: Check your local housing forecast
Housing recovery ripples through economy
Housing recovery ripples through economy
In the handful of markets where prices have recently declined, Stiff said they’ll likely turn positive before the year is out. Even with the dramatic price increase recently, he remained unconcerned about a new bubble, as “home prices remain 26% below their peak nationally and are even lower in some metro areas.”
Related: Housing markets where cash is king
San Jose, Calif., was the biggest winner over the 12 months that ended in March 2013, with an increase of 23.7%, but it’s forecast to gain just 7.4% in the current period.
Phoenix and Sacramento will also see a significant slowdown, with price gains dropping from above 20% to the single digits.
Related: 10 big, booming cities
Other markets will take up some of the slack. Prices in Hartford, Conn., should increase by 9.8% after recording a 1.2% year-over-year gain through March 2013. Baltimore and Philadelphia will also see their prices jump.
Stiff has consistently projected stagnation in Florida housing markets, and this year is no different. He thinks prices will dip in Miami by 2.7%; Fort Lauderdale by 2.6%; and Orlando by 1.6%. Tampa is a lone bright spot, where prices are expected to rise 2.3%.


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Thursday, August 8, 2013

Survey: Americans Upbeat on Housing, Despite Rates - Key West Real Estate - OceanBlueRealEstate.com

Survey: Americans Upbeat on Housing, Despite Rates
Americans are increasingly optimistic about the housing market, despite the threat of a continued rise in mortgage rates, a new survey shows. Fifty-three percent of Americans expect home prices to increase by an average of 3.9 percent over the next 12 months, according to Fannie Mae’s July National Housing Survey of 1,000 home owners. Only 6 percent expect prices to fall, a new low in the survey's three-year history.
Seventy-four percent of those surveyed say now is a good time to purchase a house, and 40 percent say now is a good time to sell. But consumers are bracing themselves for higher mortgage rates: 62 percent of survey respondents say they expect rates to rise over the next year, while only 5 percent expect them to fall.
"Consumers have taken the interest-rate rise in stride,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “Expectations for continued improvement in housing persist, and sentiment toward the current buying and selling environment is back on track from its dip last month. These results are consistent with our own analysis of previous housing cycles, which finds that interest rates and home prices are not strongly correlated."

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Wednesday, August 7, 2013

President Calls for Ending Freddie and Fannie, Hints at HARP Expansion - Key West Real Estate

Key West real estate agent Joe D Wells - www.OceanBlueRealEstate.com

BY JANN SWANSON

President Barack Obama, speaking to an audience in Phoenix yesterday, tied his proposal reforming the U.S. housing system to both his on-going theme of shoring up the middle class and to immigration reform. Among his specific proposals were the gradual elimination of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the need to insure the availability of decent and affordable rental housing.

Calling owning a home "the ultimate evidence that here in America, hard work pays off, that responsibility is rewarded," he pointed to the difference between when his grandfather was able to buy his first home with an FHA loan and the events leading up to the recent crisis. "In that earlier generation, houses weren't for flipping around, they weren't for speculation -- houses were to live in, and to build a life with." But unfortunately, he said, responsibility gave way to recklessness - and triggered a recession.

The President enumerated some of the steps that the government has already taken to reverse the decline in housing and some of the recent signs of recovery, emphasizing that housing isn't just important for the person who owns the house - it impacts the entire economy "Construction workers, contractors, suppliers, carpet makers, all these folks are impacted by the housing industry."

We've made progress, he said, but we've got to build on this progress and "turn the page on this kind of bubble-and-bust mentality that helped to create this mess in the first place. We've got to build a housing system that is durable and fair and rewards responsibility for generations to come".

There are, he said, five immediate steps that must be taken:
  • Congress should pass a bill giving every homeowner the chance to save thousands of dollars a year by refinancing their mortgage at today's rates.
  • We've made it harder for reckless buyers to buy homes that they can't afford now we must make it easier for qualified buyers to buy ones they can afford by simplifying overlapping regulations, cutting red tape, and giving persons who have worked hard to repair their credit a second chance.
  • We must fix our broken immigration system because when more people can buy homes and play by the rules, home values go up for everybody. One recent study showed the average homeowner has already seen the value of their home boosted by thousands of dollars because of immigration.
  • Rebuild the communities hardest hit by the housing crash; putting construction workers back to work repairing rundown homes, tearing down vacant properties so that the value of homes in those surrounding areas start picking up.
  • Make sure families that can't or don't want to buy a home still have a decent place to rent. Instead of making everyone feel like they must own a home, even if they weren't ready let's invest in affordable rental housing. Let's bring together cities and states to address local barriers that drive up rents for working families.
As home prices rise, we don't want another bubble, he said, we want something stable and steady. 'And that's why I want to lay a rock-solid foundation to make sure the kind of crisis we went through never happens again." To that end, he said, we must wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two companies that are not really government but not really private sector. "For too long, these companies were allowed to make huge profits buying mortgages, knowing that if their bets went bad, taxpayers would be left holding the bag. It was "heads we win, tails you lose." "It helped to inflate this bubble in a way that ultimately killed Main Street."

He said a bipartisan group of senators is working to end these two companies (referring to the Corker-Warner bill), "And they're following four core principles for what I believe this reform should look like. "

First, private capital should take a bigger role in the mortgage market. There should be a limited government role and private lending should be the backbone of the housing market including community-based lenders "who view their borrowers not as a number, but as a neighbor."

Second, we can't leave taxpayers on the hook for irresponsibility or bad decisions by some of these lenders or Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. "We've got to encourage the pursuit of profit, but the era of expecting a bailout after you pursue your profit and you don't manage your risk well -- well, that puts the whole country at risk. We're not going to do that anymore."

The third principle is to preserve access to safe and simple mortgage products like the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.

Fourth, we've got to keep housing affordable for first-time homebuyers. And that means we've got to strengthen the FHA so it gives today's families a chance to buy a home, and it preserves those rungs on the ladder of opportunity.

And we've got to support affordable rental housing and we've also got to keep up our fight against homelessness.

The president also called on Congress to immediately allow an up-or-down vote on the confirmation of James Watt, his nominee to head the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and gave a strong endorsement to the work being done to protect homeowners by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The President concluded, "Put all these principles together, that's going to protect our entire economy and it will improve the housing market not just here in Phoenix, but throughout the state and throughout the country. We'll make owning a home a symbol of responsibility, not speculation -- a source of security for generations to come, just like it was for my grandparents."

Reaction received by MND to the President's speech has thus far been supportive. Rick Judson, chairman of theNational Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said his organization applauded the President for "affirming the importance of maintaining a a federal backstop as part of efforts to revamp the housing finance system and protect the 30-year mortgage." Judson said NHAB also supports strengthening the FHA to facilitate the flow of mortgage credit to qualified home buyers, cutting red tape and easing tight credit conditions that are preventing creditworthy borrowers from obtaining home loans."

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) President and CEO David H. Stevens said the President's insistence on transitioning the mortgage market toward relying on private capital was of particular importance as is his apparent willingness to adopt a common securitization platform and risk-share options. Both of these, Stevens said, are key components of what MBA believes should be part of reforming the secondary mortgage market and both can be implemented now without legislation.

A statement from The Center for Responsible Lending (CRL) said, "Next steps toward a full recovery? Confirm Mel Watt to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and then give the common-sense Qualified Mortgage (QM) rules time to work, and institute Qualified Residential Mortgage rules that mirror QM rules."

CRL stressed that "any entity that replaces Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must include an explicit and paid-for government guarantee and a duty to serve the entire market. The new system must ensure that all Americans have fair access to safe and affordable 30-year fixed rate mortgage credit."

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Monday, August 5, 2013

How to Identify a Healthy Housing Market - Key West Real Estate - OceanBlueRealEstate.com

Houston-based real estate consulting firm Metrostudy uses "drive-bys" to help it gauge the health of the residential market in different U.S. metro areas.  Employees drive through newly built—or still under construction—housing developments from Texas to Florida and begin observing. 
If there are toys on a house's front lawn, for example, that is a good sign that a family has moved in.  Another positive sign is if a garden hose is attached to the side of the house.  Not only is the home occupied, it also has an owner who cares about his or her property. 
Among the bad signs are the absence of curtains in the windows, a high number of empty lots, and newly completed but clearly vacant houses.  Metrostudy researchers say these are indicators that a developer may have badly overestimated demand and could soon be saddled with inventory. 
Brad Hunter, chief economist of Metrostudy, is projecting double-digit increases in new-home prices for the remainder of 2013.  He sees the speculative excess mostly gone from the market.  In 2014, though, Hunter forecasts that new-home prices will increase only 6 percent as interest rates continue their upward climb.  He concludes, "Mortgage rates could pose a challenge to affordability."
Source: "To Figure Out Where Real Estate Is Headed, Start Driving," Business Week (Aug. 5, 2013)

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